Decisive
One book, placed in its field — what this book gets right, where it goes further than the rest, and what the rest of the field adds.
Mike West, Editor · HR Leader Guide · bicycle.guide/guides/profile-decisive
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Decisive
One book, placed in its field — what this book gets right, where it goes further than the rest, and what the rest of the field adds.
Mike West, Editor · HR Leader Guide · bicycle.guide/guides/profile-decisive
The problem
Decision quality erodes when it is left to instinct instead of method.
You were taught the moves piecemeal, never the whole model.
Decisive · Mike West, Editor · HR Leader Guide
The model
- 01Narrow Framing
- 02Confirmation Bias
- 03Short-Term Emotion
- 04Overconfidence About the Future
- 05Widen Your Options
- 06Reality-Test Your Assumptions
- 07Attain Distance Before Deciding
- 08Prepare to Be Wrong
Decisive · Mike West, Editor · HR Leader Guide
Step 1 of 5 · Narrow Framing
Any decision phrased as 'whether or not' is a red flag that you're spotlighting one option.
Misconception
Practitioners believe that once they've weighed the pros and cons of an option carefully, they've been thorough.
Reality
Thoroughness inside a single option is not the same as breadth across options; you can deliberate impeccably about the wrong two-item menu. The error lives in the question, not the analysis.
Decisive · Mike West, Editor · HR Leader Guide
Step 2 of 5 · Confirmation Bias
Confirmation bias makes motivated reasoning feel like due diligence.
Misconception
Practitioners think that because they collected data and consulted others, their conclusion is evidence-based.
Reality
The presence of research says nothing about its symmetry; a hunter who only shoots toward the target he wants still comes home with proof. Bias hides in which questions you asked and whom you asked, not whether you asked.
Decisive · Mike West, Editor · HR Leader Guide
Step 3 of 5 · Short-Term Emotion
Short-term emotion tempts you toward choices that are bad over the long run.
Misconception
Practitioners believe strong feeling about a decision signals its importance and should be trusted as a guide.
Reality
The intensity of a feeling is uncorrelated with its relevance to the long-term choice; the churn of loss aversion and mere-exposure comfort is loudest precisely when it should be discounted. Emotion tells you a decision is hard, not what to do about it.
Decisive · Mike West, Editor · HR Leader Guide
Step 4 of 5 · Overconfidence About the Future
You know less about the future than your confidence suggests.
Misconception
Practitioners think expertise and experience make their predictions reliable.
Reality
Experts are often more confident, not more accurate; expertise sharpens judgment about the present but not about the unknowable range of futures. The information at hand feels complete precisely because you can't see what's missing.
Decisive · Mike West, Editor · HR Leader Guide
Step 5 of 5 · Widen Your Options
Consider options simultaneously, not one at a time.
Misconception
Practitioners fear that generating more options will cause analysis paralysis and slow them down.
Reality
Multitracking a few genuine alternatives actually speeds decisions and reduces politics, because comparison replaces defensiveness. More options isn't endless options—it's escaping the poverty of one.
Decisive · Mike West, Editor · HR Leader Guide
Decisive · Mike West, Editor · HR Leader Guide
The cheat sheet
- Narrow FramingAny decision phrased as 'whether or not' is a red flag that you're spotlighting one option.
- Confirmation BiasConfirmation bias makes motivated reasoning feel like due diligence.
- Short-Term EmotionShort-term emotion tempts you toward choices that are bad over the long run.
- Overconfidence About the FutureYou know less about the future than your confidence suggests.
- Widen Your OptionsConsider options simultaneously, not one at a time.
- Reality-Test Your AssumptionsThe outside view (base rates) beats the inside story most of the time.
- Attain Distance Before Deciding10/10/10 shrinks the outsized weight of present emotion.
- Prepare to Be WrongBookend outcomes so you're prepared for both the bad and the surprisingly good.
Decisive · Mike West, Editor · HR Leader Guide
Sources
- Decisive — Chip Heath and Dan Heath
Decisive · Mike West, Editor · HR Leader Guide