Noise A Flaw in Human Judgment
One book, placed in its field — what Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony etc.'s book gets right, where it goes further than the rest, and what the rest of the field adds.
Mike West, Editor · HR Leader Guide · peopleanalyst.com/guides/profile-noise_a_flaw_in_human_judgment
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Noise A Flaw in Human Judgment
One book, placed in its field — what Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony etc.'s book gets right, where it goes further than the rest, and what the rest of the field adds.
Mike West, Editor · HR Leader Guide · peopleanalyst.com/guides/profile-noise_a_flaw_in_human_judgment
The problem
Judgment error persists when it is left to instinct instead of method.
You were taught the moves piecemeal, never the whole model.
Noise A Flaw in Human Judgment · Mike West, Editor · HR Leader Guide
The model
- 01Structured Decision Process
- 02Aggregation of Independent Judgments
- 03Use of Rules and Guidelines
- 04Use of Relative Scales and Judgments
- 05Sequencing of Information
- 06Adoption of Outside View
- 07Selection and Training of Judges
- 08Judge Characteristics
Noise A Flaw in Human Judgment · Mike West, Editor · HR Leader Guide
Step 1 of 5 · Structured Decision Process
Fix the assessment dimensions before you meet the case, not after.
Misconception
Practitioners believe structure means filling out a form and then overriding it with their gut when the numbers 'feel wrong.'
Reality
The power of decomposition comes from evaluating each dimension in isolation and delaying the holistic judgment until all are in; if you let intuition contaminate the components as you score them, you have added paperwork, not structure.
Noise A Flaw in Human Judgment · Mike West, Editor · HR Leader Guide
Step 2 of 5 · Aggregation of Independent Judgments
Averaging N independent judgments cuts noise by roughly the square root of N.
Misconception
Practitioners assume a group discussion that reaches consensus captures the wisdom of the crowd.
Reality
Discussion destroys the statistical benefit: once people hear each other, their errors correlate and the crowd shrinks to whoever spoke first or loudest. The averaging must happen on judgments formed in isolation.
Noise A Flaw in Human Judgment · Mike West, Editor · HR Leader Guide
Step 3 of 5 · Use of Rules and Guidelines
A simple, consistent rule usually outperforms unaided expert judgment on the same cases.
Misconception
Practitioners fear that any rule strips out the expert nuance that makes their judgment valuable.
Reality
The nuance experts prize is largely noise: simple linear rules and even random-weight models routinely match or beat expert judgment because they apply the same logic every time. Discretion feels like insight but mostly adds inconsistency.
Noise A Flaw in Human Judgment · Mike West, Editor · HR Leader Guide
Step 4 of 5 · Use of Relative Scales and Judgments
Comparative judgments are more reliable than absolute ones because humans compare better than they calibrate.
Misconception
Practitioners think a well-defined numeric scale with anchors gives everyone the same yardstick.
Reality
People are far better at saying 'A is stronger than B' than at placing A at an absolute point, and adjectival or numeric labels mean different things to different raters no matter how carefully defined. Comparison sidesteps the calibration problem entirely.
Noise A Flaw in Human Judgment · Mike West, Editor · HR Leader Guide
Step 5 of 5 · Sequencing of Information
Sequence information by need, not availability, to prevent premature coherence.
Misconception
Practitioners believe seeing all available information up front makes for the most informed and objective judgment.
Reality
More information delivered all at once feeds excessive coherence: the judge locks onto an early narrative and reads the rest as confirmation. Withholding non-essential and potentially biasing details until they are needed preserves independence of the evidence.
Noise A Flaw in Human Judgment · Mike West, Editor · HR Leader Guide
A framework to use
Structured Interviewing for Personnel Selection
This framework is part of the full guide. See the guide →
Noise A Flaw in Human Judgment · Mike West, Editor · HR Leader Guide
The cheat sheet
- Structured Decision ProcessFix the assessment dimensions before you meet the case, not after.
- Aggregation of Independent JudgmentsAveraging N independent judgments cuts noise by roughly the square root of N.
- Use of Rules and GuidelinesA simple, consistent rule usually outperforms unaided expert judgment on the same cases.
- Use of Relative Scales and JudgmentsComparative judgments are more reliable than absolute ones because humans compare better than they calibrate.
- Sequencing of InformationSequence information by need, not availability, to prevent premature coherence.
- Adoption of Outside ViewEstablish the base rate before you build the story, not after.
- Selection and Training of JudgesSelect for open-minded cognitive style, not just seniority or confidence.
- Judge CharacteristicsCognitive style predicts judgment quality better than years of experience in unpredictable domains.
Noise A Flaw in Human Judgment · Mike West, Editor · HR Leader Guide
Sources
- Noise A Flaw in Human Judgment — Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony etc.
Noise A Flaw in Human Judgment · Mike West, Editor · HR Leader Guide