Superforecasting
One book, placed in its field — what Philip E. Tetlock's book gets right, where it goes further than the rest, and what the rest of the field adds.
Mike West, Editor · HR Leader Guide · bicycle.guide/guides/profile-superforecasting
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Superforecasting
One book, placed in its field — what Philip E. Tetlock's book gets right, where it goes further than the rest, and what the rest of the field adds.
Mike West, Editor · HR Leader Guide · bicycle.guide/guides/profile-superforecasting
The problem
Forecasting Accuracy erodes when it is left to instinct instead of method.
You were taught the moves piecemeal, never the whole model.
Superforecasting · Mike West, Editor · HR Leader Guide
The model
- 01Forecasting Training
- 02Deliberative Practice and Feedback
- 03Collaborative Teaming
- 04Perpetual Beta Orientation
- 05Actively Open-Minded Thinking
- 06Probabilistic Reasoning
- 07Dragonfly-Eye Perspective Taking
- 08Disciplined Belief Updating
Superforecasting · Mike West, Editor · HR Leader Guide
Step 1 of 5 · Forecasting Training
A one-hour tutorial on probabilistic reasoning and bias yielded a ~10% accuracy improvement, making training the first lever to pull.
Misconception
People assume forecasting skill is an innate gift or an accumulated wisdom that can't be taught in a classroom setting.
Reality
The Good Judgment Project showed a 60-minute tutorial on bias, base rates, and averaging measurably improved Brier scores across ordinary volunteers; the skill is a trainable set of habits, not a talent you're born with.
Superforecasting · Mike West, Editor · HR Leader Guide
Step 2 of 5 · Deliberative Practice and Feedback
Feedback must be scored, timely, and unambiguous — Brier scores on dated questions — or practice produces no learning.
Misconception
Practitioners believe that simply making lots of predictions over a long career naturally sharpens their judgment.
Reality
Volume alone teaches nothing; improvement requires quantified scoring (Brier scores), unambiguous resolution dates, and post-mortems on both hits and misses — most professional forecasters never get this and so plateau early.
Superforecasting · Mike West, Editor · HR Leader Guide
Step 3 of 5 · Collaborative Teaming
Log each member's forecast independently before discussion so the group starts from genuine diversity, not a single anchor.
Misconception
Practitioners assume that putting smart forecasters together automatically averages out their individual errors and yields a better estimate.
Reality
Groups default to conformity, deference, and shared blind spots unless friction is deliberately engineered; accuracy comes not from aggregation but from members actively hunting for information their colleagues missed and challenging each other's reasoning.
Superforecasting · Mike West, Editor · HR Leader Guide
Step 4 of 5 · Perpetual Beta Orientation
Improvement comes from revising the process behind forecasts, not merely tracking whether they came true.
Misconception
That being in 'perpetual beta' means chasing every new method, tool, or framework you encounter.
Reality
Perpetual beta is not novelty-seeking; it is disciplined revision of what you already do, driven by scored feedback rather than boredom or fashion. The best forecasters change slowly and only when evidence tells them to.
Superforecasting · Mike West, Editor · HR Leader Guide
Step 5 of 5 · Actively Open-Minded Thinking
Treat each belief as a hypothesis whose disconfirming evidence you are obligated to search for.
Misconception
That open-mindedness means giving every viewpoint equal weight and refusing to commit to a position.
Reality
Active open-mindedness is asymmetric: you commit to a probability, then work hardest to find what could break it. Balance is a symptom of good process, not the goal — the goal is calibrated conviction that survives scrutiny.
Superforecasting · Mike West, Editor · HR Leader Guide
A framework to use
The Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters
This framework is part of the full guide. See the guide →
Superforecasting · Mike West, Editor · HR Leader Guide
The cheat sheet
- Forecasting TrainingA one-hour tutorial on probabilistic reasoning and bias yielded a ~10% accuracy improvement, making training the first lever to pull.
- Deliberative Practice and FeedbackFeedback must be scored, timely, and unambiguous — Brier scores on dated questions — or practice produces no learning.
- Collaborative TeamingLog each member's forecast independently before discussion so the group starts from genuine diversity, not a single anchor.
- Perpetual Beta OrientationImprovement comes from revising the process behind forecasts, not merely tracking whether they came true.
- Actively Open-Minded ThinkingTreat each belief as a hypothesis whose disconfirming evidence you are obligated to search for.
- Probabilistic ReasoningUse the full 0-100 scale; rounding to 'nice' numbers discards accuracy you already possess.
- Dragonfly-Eye Perspective TakingEstablish the base rate before the story; the outside view is your prior, the inside view is your adjustment.
- Disciplined Belief UpdatingFrequent small updates beat rare large ones; the best forecasters revise often.
Superforecasting · Mike West, Editor · HR Leader Guide
Sources
- Superforecasting — Philip E. Tetlock
Superforecasting · Mike West, Editor · HR Leader Guide